2030 Probabilities

 

Bertrand Russell:  "Experience never allows us to reach absolute certainty. 

  We should not seek to obtain more than probabilities."

William:  What is likely to happen over the next 4 years?

  Barring some wild outlier event, the probabilities are pretty clear.

  The 2020 pandemic, which dragged on until 2022, was an unpredictable event.

   Unless something like that happens, such as a major war in Europe turning things for the worse, Brazil's future is a predictable bad scenario.

  2027 will likely be a repeat of almost everything we saw in 2015.

  The difference is that with an independent Central Bank, we’ll drift into a recession a bit more smoothly.

  However, 2028 is going to be catastrophic, just like 2016 was.

  This time around, I hope there’s no impeachment process, it doesn't accomplish anything anyway.

  The majority's appetite for a nanny state always wins out in the end.

  Geraldo (the Vice President) might even patch things up a bit like Michel Temer (Dilma’s VP) did, but the "coup" narrative is the only thing voters will hear (not to generalize), and they'll just vote someone from the left back into office in 2030.

   The Bolsonaro phenomenon won't happen again precisely because of "bolsonarismo".

  After Jair blew it yet again by picking Flávio over Tarcísio, I honestly don't even have the stomach to look at that family anymore.

  I doubt I'm the only one.

  Hardline bolsonaristas have already started launching harsh attacks on Tarcísio, and they'll do the exact same thing to anyone else who stands out.

  Bottom line: the same old mess.

  Brazil isn't going to collapse, obviously, but economically it's going to stay stagnant, with a strong likelihood of taking a step backward.

  In 2030, the hardcore die-hards will push someone tied to Lula into the runoff.

  Hardcore bolsonaristas will put a Bolsonaro in the runoff, maybe Michelle, depending on how she performs in the Senate.

  For the first time in my life, I probably won't even bother going out to vote.

  But don't think I'm sad or depressed.

  Of course, I wish the odds were a bit more in our favor.

  However, on a personal level, I have a very good life.

  Assuming nothing out of the left field happens, like a serious illness, it'll be 4 years of peace, prosperity, and plenty of philosophy, just the way I like it.

  Amen?

Filosofia Matemática - Link

✧✧✧

.